Sampling fish for disease - some science stuff

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Sampling fish for disease - some science stuff

Postby Spike » Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:01 am

All,

You were so nice to respond to my request for feedback on a BHP program, that I dedided to share a little tid bit I've run across just for fun (but it also helps you understand where CEFAS gets their sample size numbers).

This if from Bacterial Diseases of Fish by Inglis, Roberts and Bromage, publisher: Blackwell Science, 1993, pages 258 & 9.

I'm gonna try to attach this stuff. If it doesn't work, I'll send it to Dunc and he'll attach it <grin>.

Cheers,
Spike
Attachments
SampleSixeText.jpg
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SampleSizeTable2.jpg
SampleSizeTable2.jpg (44.87 KiB) Viewed 8578 times
Spike

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OK, maybe this was not all that exciting <LOL>

Postby Spike » Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:07 pm

All,

I sometimes forget that not everyone is a tech-head. Sorry.
But just for giggles, here's the CEFAS site that Iwas referring to when I mentioned their sample sizes. http://www.cefastechnology.co.uk/khv/default.htm

Cheers,
Spike
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Postby Duncan » Sat Feb 17, 2007 1:30 pm

spike

Love the science mate and thanks, but, good god i hate statistics, they tell you every thing and tell you nothing at the same time, they are both a valuable tool and a crap tool at the same time. let me explain

Honda Motor Co. plans to recall 45,335 Civic Hybrid sedans worldwide to repair an electrical fault that may exist in that batch of cars, that could stop the cars’ engines,

to date they have less than 5 reported incidents of the engines stopping due to this fault in 45,000 cars, so statistically they should not be recalling them, but im glad they are. Statistically, Honda have decided statistically they would be wrong not to recall.

i remember a point in history A car company decided to play the statistic rules, then decided it was statistically not needed to recall the vehicles with a known fault. That was as you remember also, the Ford motor company with ford Pinto fuel tank issue.. it was deemed that although the fuel tank had a known fault it was statistically unlikley the events needed to make the tank explode would be extremely rare and were less than was statistically was required to make this an issue, or warrant a full scale recall. This turned out to be a monumental mistake and a human error based on a mathamatical model. its cost countell Human lives and Ford loads a dosh! This mistake will be assigned to the history books forever. and i'm sure its one that Ford and the relatives of the victims will never forget .

Now if hypothetically ( just for fun) i had to live with an outback native tribe in africa or somewhere like that, and i had to pick from one of five possible tribes to live with, but one of them had a cannibalistic tendancies, then i would maybe listen to statistics < grin>

same with KHV if its there in only one fish i wanna know where the threat is gonna come from.

what i am saying is statistics depends WHATS at stake if your in a casino in vegas statistics is fine where lives depend on it, its not so good

having said that i did find it interesting as a mathamatical tool and what some folks will pin there hopes on

thanks my friend i appreciated it
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Postby fisherman » Sun Feb 18, 2007 1:33 am

Hi Spike

You will get some hobbyist believe this what chance do we have
Have read of this web page

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/koi-carp_W0QQitem ... dZViewItem :evil:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/koi-carp_W0QQitem ... dZViewItem :twisted:
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Postby Mookiemoo » Sun Feb 18, 2007 3:16 am

Duncan wrote:spike

Love the science mate and thanks, but, good god i hate statistics, they tell you every thing and tell you nothing at the same time, they are both a valuable tool and a crap tool at the same time. let me explain

Honda Motor Co. plans to recall 45,335 Civic Hybrid sedans worldwide to repair an electrical fault that may exist in that batch of cars, that could stop the cars’ engines,

to date they have less than 5 reported incidents of the engines stopping due to this fault in 45,000 cars, so statistically they should not be recalling them, but im glad they are. Statistically, Honda have decided statistically they would be wrong not to recall.

i remember a point in history A car company decided to play the statistic rules, then decided it was statistically not needed to recall the vehicles with a known fault. That was as you remember also, the Ford motor company with ford Pinto fuel tank issue.. it was deemed that although the fuel tank had a known fault it was statistically unlikley the events needed to make the tank explode would be extremely rare and were less than was statistically was required to make this an issue, or warrant a full scale recall. This turned out to be a monumental mistake and a human error based on a mathamatical model. its cost countell Human lives and Ford loads a dosh! This mistake will be assigned to the history books forever. and i'm sure its one that Ford and the relatives of the victims will never forget .

Now if hypothetically ( just for fun) i had to live with an outback native tribe in africa or somewhere like that, and i had to pick from one of five possible tribes to live with, but one of them had a cannibalistic tendancies, then i would maybe listen to statistics < grin>

same with KHV if its there in only one fish i wanna know where the threat is gonna come from.

what i am saying is statistics depends WHATS at stake if your in a casino in vegas statistics is fine where lives depend on it, its not so good

having said that i did find it interesting as a mathamatical tool and what some folks will pin there hopes on

thanks my friend i appreciated it


But you have to remember the ford pinto example was in america where people demonstrably:

1. cannot drive
2. red light running is common
3. they sue if they stub their big toe

Not saying its wrong but I would guess if the pinto "fault" had happened on the puma, no one would know about it.

Not disagreeing on the KHV point but am on the use of stats (its part of my job!)

Its up to everyone to make what they will - but they wshould ducate themselves first.
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Postby Duncan » Sun Feb 18, 2007 1:21 pm

mookiemoo

1. cannot drive
2. red light running is common
3. they sue if they stub their big toe


i can believe you said that! , This is derogatory remark against american's. whilst number 3 may have some foundation, they have no more bad drivers over there than we do here and we have some pretty crap drivers here
the reason the pinto came to life was it very nearly bankrupt Ford after all the fatalities and had it been a puma you can be assured on this scale it would have turned out the same way
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Postby B.Scott » Sun Feb 18, 2007 5:52 pm

Mookie,
Have you ever driven in America? Personally I have driven in many parts of the world and know of no place they drive more disciplined than the US. My wife was gobsmacked the first time we went there together and she witnessed cars at a 4 way stop sign intersection where all the cars were behind the stop sign, can to a complete stop and then took turns crossing the intersection. It's not because they are better drivers but rather the enthusiasm of the local police forces to write tickets at the drop of a hat (because half of the fine goes to the police dept.) and the fact that every time you get a ticket your insurance rates go up (see point three above). More than three tickets in 18 months and you lose you licence to drive. Keep in mind it is very easy to get a ticket in the USA. Here in Holland I have gotten 3 tickets in 30 years. In the US I got 4 in in 5 years, all for very minor infractions (2 for 3 miles too fast, one for a yellow/red light and one for an illegal left turn). If you are in the middle of the desert and see a stop sign then you STOP COMPLETELY. You know that a half mile down the road is a cop behind a cactus watching you with a telescope! I might add that the lights in the US don't have a interval between one side turning red and the other turning green. The second the yellow lights turn red the other side goes from red to green and the cars take off. Rush a yellow light AND YOU RISK GETTING HIT! :D

PS never owned a pinto but I did have two Corvairs (see Ralph Nader's book "Unsafe at Any Speed")

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